Böll·Europe Podcast - 2025 parliamentary election in Czechia 🇨🇿

00:00:05: Hi, you are listening to the Bird Europe podcast series on elections in twenty-twenty-five.

00:00:11: My name is John Lanfranco, Head of Communications and Outreach at the EU and Global Dialogue Office of the Heirich-Börsch-Diften, the German Green Political Foundation.

00:00:21: You can find out more about our work on eu.bird.org.

00:00:25: The link is in the show notes.

00:00:27: And don't forget to subscribe to stay updated on new episodes.

00:00:31: Today we focus on Czechia.

00:00:35: On three and four October, Czechia elected a new parliament.

00:00:40: The Anno party of Andriy Babiš won the elections with thirty-four point five percent of the votes.

00:00:46: That's eighty out of two hundred seats, and is likely to make a comeback in government after four years in opposition.

00:00:53: From the outgoing government parties, the coalition Spolu and Mayors and Independent took a hit.

00:00:59: Whereas the Czech Pirate Party won fourteen seats, up to a total of eighteen.

00:01:06: These eighteen seats include two from the Czech Greens, who returned to the National Parliament after fifteen years.

00:01:13: The big surprise was the breakthrough of the Motorist Party, which won thirteen seats.

00:01:19: What does all this mean for Czech and regional politics and for the EU?

00:01:24: In this episode I talked with Adela Jurečkova, director of the Heirich-Welsch-Diffen office in Prague, which covers Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary.

00:01:33: We'll discuss about the election results, main topics, government formation, and implications for the EU.

00:01:40: We will also discuss behavior and priorities of the electorate, support for Ukraine, and what to expect from Czechia's European policy.

00:01:50: Hello Adela!

00:01:51: Hello!

00:01:51: Thanks so much for joining me today.

00:01:54: So let's tackle the big picture first.

00:01:58: Andre Babich won the elections.

00:02:00: We want to know what.

00:02:02: What's your main takeaway of the election results?

00:02:05: What's your your main reading of it?

00:02:08: Yeah, there are many takeaways already.

00:02:11: First of all, of course, we have seen yet another political comeback of a populist leader in Central Europe.

00:02:18: The other party of Andrej Babis is the clear winner of this election with thirty four point five percent.

00:02:25: They are stronger than it was predicted in the polls.

00:02:29: and the current government coalition consisting of the Spolu coalition, three center-right parties, and the mayor's party, they have clearly lost their majority.

00:02:41: Spolu ended up with around twenty-three percent, the mayor's got around eleven percent, and the pirate party, who has been part of this government only until twenty-twenty-four, received nine percent.

00:02:55: This is... Of course, not a great outcome from a green or liberal democratic point of view, but there are also some good news that I would like to share.

00:03:06: And the biggest one, I would say, is that the extremist margins are much weaker at the end than expected.

00:03:13: The left nationalist and struggle for a Russian movement's statue law.

00:03:18: that has been built around members of the Communist Party, people from the disinformation scene, and a few social Democrats did not pass the five percent threshold, and it was clearly expected that they will.

00:03:32: Then also the support for the far-right party that is also strongly pro-Russian and strongly anti-EU, called SPD, such as the German social Democrats, but definitely different kind of party.

00:03:47: They got lower support than expected.

00:03:50: At the end, it's seven point eight percent.

00:03:55: And another, from my point of view, less pleasant surprise of this election is that the motorist party could be translated with driver's party and has been more successful than expected.

00:04:11: It wasn't clear if they will enter the parliament.

00:04:13: There is a five percent threshold.

00:04:16: and many thought that they will miss the opportunity to enter the Czech parliament, but at the end they entered with six point eight percent, so kind of comfortably.

00:04:29: And yeah, and this party, as the name suggests, strongly opposes the face-out of the combustion engine and the green deal.

00:04:38: It's economically quite neoliberal, and the party leader Philip Turek is one of the faces of the Czech... manosphere environment online.

00:04:48: So it's definitely not a party.

00:04:51: that, of course, from my point of view, is a good party to the Parliament and politics, but they are there and they are stronger than we thought.

00:05:05: Babish will most likely find some kind of agreement with the motorist party and the far-right SPD.

00:05:12: He needs them both for building a government, a majority.

00:05:17: And the parties of the current coalition have declined a cooperation with Babish and also he promised his voters to remove the current government.

00:05:26: So I think it's not very likely at this point that they would cooperate.

00:05:33: One for me very positive and big surprise is that two green candidates who have been running on the Pirates List from actually undelectable positions, received so many preference votes from the voters that they climbed up the list and they entered Parliament.

00:05:51: So this is after fifteen years, there will be two green members of Parliament in the Czech Parliament, which is a great success for the party.

00:06:03: One of them is the co-chair of the Czech Greens.

00:06:07: And also, another positive news is that there has been a huge success of female candidates in the preference voting.

00:06:16: The candidate lists were still very male-dominated and the voters used their opportunity with the preference votes to send to women up to list.

00:06:25: So at the end, the GIP Parliament will have the historically highest share of women around one third.

00:06:31: Interestingly, in the pre-election campaign, foreign policy has been a very important topic, but very simplistic in a way, west versus east.

00:06:46: And these both narratives have been very dominant.

00:06:50: But the outcome, in fact, is, I think, to a large extent due to domestic concerns.

00:06:57: The current government has been perceived as what?

00:07:00: one that rather focuses on foreign policy issues and doesn't care enough for supporting people during the times of crisis.

00:07:08: As the course of living, the energy price inflation has heavily increased and the government has done some cuts in public budgets, raised some taxes while real wages have been significantly falling.

00:07:24: And even if they are recovering right now, they are still back.

00:07:29: to the level of two thousand nineteen.

00:07:32: So so it's yeah still they have been falling really really low.

00:07:38: And some new data showed that the voter turnout that has been by the way the highest since the late nineties has raised mostly due to higher participation of people from poor districts and regions who have mostly supported the Anu Party of Andrei Pablis.

00:07:55: So definitely domestic issues and cause of living issues have been important.

00:08:02: So it could be partly a good news that the participation goes up, except that, well, it also favored... That's a not so progressive views.

00:08:13: and does this have to do with besides the cost of living with other sort of disenchantment with politics or something that a trend that you see in in Czech politics in the in the last years?

00:08:25: or is it also a generational issue for instance that we should be seeing that we should be looking at?

00:08:31: I will say that more than a generational issue It is an issue of center versus periphery gap that is definitely very visible in Czechia.

00:08:44: So the people who supported ANO have been mostly from peripheries, which doesn't mean only the regions like on the borders of the country, but also sometimes the inner peripheries within cities, like the places that are where people live who have a lower standard of living, lower income, lower formal stages of education and in general lower chances to participate in society and see that democracy is really working for them.

00:09:22: So definitely there has been a certain anti-system turn but it hasn't been as strong as it could be because these people had the decision to make because they didn't want the current government to stay, they wanted a change, but they could have decided to vote for more extreme parties that are really like anti-system, but they decided to get the vote to Babish, who is definitely a populist and he definitely turned more to the right.

00:09:55: but who still is kind of more moderate, purple-lit.

00:10:01: So, yeah, I think that this has been the biggest, like, divisive line.

00:10:10: And then, as you mentioned, yes, I think there is a strong tendency, but since many years, it's not new, it has just strengthened that people are disenchanted with... democracy with politics, with political parties, especially, but also the parliament and the government, whoever is part of the government at the very moment.

00:10:35: So yes, this is also a very horrifying tendency that can fuel populist and far-right parties.

00:10:46: And talking about populism and the fact that, well, our Prague office, which you had also covers Slovakia, where Fittl's government also is in place, or Orbán since many years and with elections next year, or with the comeback of Nabrodzki in Poland, also a neighbour country.

00:11:07: Do you think that this return of Babish is part of the same pattern?

00:11:12: Is it different in Czechia than in those countries, or do you actually see a common threat there?

00:11:18: There are definitely some parallels when we take Slovakia.

00:11:22: it was clear that the weakness of the Democratic parties and their performance has fueled the comeback of the populists.

00:11:30: Especially in times of crisis, if governments fail to deliver a certain level of support and stability to the people who need it, the voters turn their back on them.

00:11:43: But to be fair, I have to say that the support for the Democratic mainstream party, who are pro-Western, pro-NATO, pro-EU has not dramatically declined if we see the results of the election.

00:12:00: Altogether they have received similar numbers of votes as in twenty twenty one.

00:12:06: But the difference has been made by the ability of Babish to win over some voters from the anti-system camp and also by, as I mentioned, the higher turnout of voters from marginalized peripheries.

00:12:21: And I think the difference is really that, yeah, the populist is back because people really wanted to change.

00:12:30: But the difference is that they still chose the option that is less extreme and that is Andrei Babish compared to the far-right SPD who really got... a weak result than expected and also the fact that the nationalist left but also partly far right party statue has not entered parliament.

00:13:00: Do you mention that?

00:13:01: support for so to say foreign policy?

00:13:06: big issues and one of the biggest issues is of course Ukraine.

00:13:10: What do you expect of the return of a Babish-led government when it comes to support Ukraine, especially on military aid, and by extension transatlantic relations.

00:13:24: Yeah, this comparison between Orban and Babish, I think, is a bit too simplistic, even though they really have things in common.

00:13:37: Babish is clearly populist, who has moved.

00:13:41: further to the right in the last years.

00:13:44: And he didn't do so because he would hold some ultra-conservative or far-right views himself, but simply he noticed that this rhetoric and this way of doing politics is currently gaining momentum.

00:13:59: And this change in his positioning has clearly manifested in the transition of the Anno party from the renew fraction to the Patriots for Europe.

00:14:11: in the European Parliament, where he now sits alongside with Orban, Kickel or Le Pen.

00:14:17: On the other hand, I think it's not completely correct and especially not very helpful to paint Babish as the new Orban in the making, because first of all Babish is acting much less ideologically.

00:14:30: He is very pragmatic and he definitely does not care about turning Czechia into an ultra-conservative country.

00:14:39: I think his style could be described as managerial populism.

00:14:44: He wants to be seen as a good manager, a skilled deal maker and someone who is more.

00:14:50: who is influential and who is respected.

00:14:53: So I would say if we want to use these kind of comparisons, he could rather be seen as a Czech Trump minus the Maga movement than a Czech Orban.

00:15:04: And in his first government, Babish has really enjoyed bragging with having the phone numbers of Macron and of other EU leaders in his phone and being in good terms with them.

00:15:16: So I think... That is actually a chance and something to build on for you readers if they want to keep check here under Babish as part of the club.

00:15:27: But you also raised the question of Ukraine and support, especially military support for Ukraine.

00:15:36: And that is indeed a topic that has been heavily discussed in the pre-election campaign.

00:15:41: And Babish and also his likely coalition partners or supporters.

00:15:48: All of them have promised to reduce or even stop Czechia's support for Ukraine.

00:15:55: Babish himself said that the NATO five percent of GDP target for military spending is too high and that the money was more needed for domestic policies and social policies.

00:16:08: He also suggested to end the Czech ammunition initiative that supports Ukraine.

00:16:15: So this is something to be afraid of.

00:16:18: On the other hand, directly after the election, his rhetoric has already changed.

00:16:23: So now Babish talks about the need to reform this ammunition initiative, to make it more transparent so that certain arm manufacturers don't take too much profit from it.

00:16:34: So it's quite a different argument that he's been using before the election.

00:16:41: Yeah, as we know so far, Babish is known for being able to change his positions very quickly and quite fundamentally.

00:16:49: So I think we need more time and especially we have to wait how his government will look like, how his coalition's partners will be or his supporters.

00:17:02: I will retain that equation that you mentioned.

00:17:04: So it's a Trump minus the MAGA movement.

00:17:07: So that would help us understand Babish.

00:17:10: And thanks for that insight.

00:17:12: So looking ahead, what do you think our EU audience, particularly in Brussels and the institutions that have to deal with the new government, have to retain?

00:17:25: What style of politics we will see?

00:17:28: Also when it comes to European cooperation at key topics coming up next, such as the new EU budget, the multi-annual financial framework.

00:17:37: You give us two or three things to expect from this government on EU policy?

00:17:42: Yes.

00:17:44: All the three parties that are now talking about forming a government, which means Anouf Andrei Babish, but also the motorists and the far-right SPD, have clearly, all these fighters have clearly rejected the phase out of the combustion engine, and they have heavily criticized the Green Deal.

00:18:06: it is clear that they will try to push against all kind of progressive climate policies.

00:18:12: Also, they have been raising the pact on migration and asylum as something that is not acceptable and it has been also criticized by all the three parties.

00:18:26: And I think it's a largely symbolic rhetoric, of course, like if something is called the pact on migration and comes from the EU, it must be rejected.

00:18:36: And it does not have much to do with what's actually inside the pact and that it does not contain their liberal immigration policies.

00:18:47: But I think here we need to expect definitely some pressure.

00:18:53: Also... The civil society is preparing for what's coming after the elections.

00:19:02: They have been working with different scenarios.

00:19:05: And the first danger for democracy that they have identified is that the parties speak about reforming the public service media.

00:19:16: And this means that It would probably be the first IRA or independent crucial democratic institutions could be a danger.

00:19:26: We have also heard some harsh statements about NGOs during the pre-election campaign.

00:19:32: And I think they could face further verbal attacks, but also some attempts to cut down their financing, especially organizations dealing with green and progressive agendas and focusing on advocacy.

00:19:46: awareness raising.

00:19:49: So I think this is another area where we can see some pushback.

00:19:56: But despite all this, I think the best strategy for Berlin and Brussels towards Babish, at least now at the start or soon at the start of his government, is rather engagement than isolation.

00:20:10: Because Babish does not want to draw the country closer to Russia.

00:20:16: He wants to keep it in the EU and aligned with its Western partners.

00:20:20: And he wants to be taken seriously by them.

00:20:25: So I think giving him a chance rather than turning their backs on him could be the key to preserving Czechia's pro-EU and pro-Western orientation.

00:20:35: But, and if that's important at the same time, EU representatives should keep their eyes and ears open for whatever society voices from Czechia.

00:20:45: have to tell them and if necessary show a quicker and more clear reaction than it has been in the case of Hungary for many years and even after.

00:21:00: in Hungary the civil society and democracy itself has been heavily attacked like not much happened for a long time and I think this should not happen in case of Czechia.

00:21:12: if this really will happen.

00:21:14: I'm not expecting it or at least not soon.

00:21:19: But yeah, it's definitely important to watch it closely and be prepared to react.

00:21:25: We will definitely watch it closely.

00:21:27: We will follow what happens next in the Czech Republic.

00:21:31: But we thank you very much, Adela, for joining us.

00:21:34: I think it's been very illustrative of what's going on.

00:21:38: And thank you very much and hope to see you soon.

00:21:41: Thank you, see you

00:21:42: soon!

00:21:49: You've been listening to the Buel Europe podcast on the results of the Czech elections with Adela Jurečkova from our Prague office.

00:21:58: You can find more analysis and updates on the Czech election results in the show notes and on our website eu.buel.org.

00:22:06: If you enjoyed this episode don't forget to subscribe, leave a review and share it with your friends and colleagues.

00:22:13: Until next time, goodbye!