Böll·Europe Podcast - 2025 parliamentary election in the Netherlands 🇳🇱

00:00:05: Hi!

00:00:06: You are listening to the Bell Europe podcast series on elections in twenty-twenty-five.

00:00:11: My name is John Lanfranco, Head of Communications and Outreach at the EU and Global Dialogue Office of the Heirich-Berchtiften, the German Green Political Foundation.

00:00:21: You can find out more about our work on eu.bell.org.

00:00:25: The link is in the show notes.

00:00:27: And don't forget to subscribe to stay updated on new episodes.

00:00:31: Today, we focus on the Netherlands.

00:00:36: On the twenty-nine October, the Netherlands went to the polls in a much anticipated election that could reshape the country's political landscape and its role in Europe.

00:00:47: After two years of a populist government, the centrist liberal party D-Six-D-Six, led by Rob Jetten, emerged as the winner.

00:00:56: Meanwhile, the Green-Links-PVDA alliance fell short of expectations, raising new questions about the future of the Dutch centre-left and about what comes next in coalition talks.

00:01:08: So, what happened?

00:01:10: What's next?

00:01:11: And why should Brussels care?

00:01:13: In this episode, I talk with Nortje Teysen, director of the Wetenshaplikbureaux Grünlings, the political foundation of Grünlings, the Dutch Green Party.

00:01:25: Nortje is also a senator for Grünlings Pevedia at the Dutch Upper House since twenty-twenty-three.

00:01:32: We'll unpack with Nortje the election results, the prospects for coalition building, and what this means for the Netherlands' election.

00:01:40: both at home and in Europe.

00:01:44: Welcome Nortje.

00:01:45: Thank you so much.

00:01:48: So the Netherlands has just voted in a closely watched election on the twenty ninth of October.

00:01:56: This election will reshape Dutch politics but also have an impact on the country's role.

00:02:01: in Europe.

00:02:02: So let's unpack what happened, who came out on top, what it will mean for the Dutch center left and for Europe.

00:02:10: So let's start with the big picture.

00:02:12: The campaign was volatile, the polls shifted week by week and turnout was rather high.

00:02:19: So what just happened?

00:02:22: What do you see as the key takeaways from this election?

00:02:26: Yeah.

00:02:27: Of course, I'm still processing about what happened, but of course, it's already easy to tell you what the takeaways are.

00:02:40: But I think to understand what is happening in the Netherlands, it's also important to look a little bit about the political landscape in the Netherlands, because otherwise it's difficult to understand.

00:02:52: So if you allow me to, I want to say three things about our political landscape.

00:02:58: First, you need to know that it's highly fragmented.

00:03:01: We have fifteen political parties in parliament.

00:03:05: So this means that every incumbent has also a serious challenger.

00:03:11: So when you look on the left, we have a socialist party, but there is a green challenger.

00:03:18: There is a challenger for pro-European issues.

00:03:22: There is one on diversity and inclusion.

00:03:25: So there's many, many political parties active in parliament.

00:03:30: Secondly, you already mentioned it's highly volatile.

00:03:34: The voters, they switch super easy between all those different political parties.

00:03:41: And they also make their decision super late.

00:03:44: So many on the election day itself.

00:03:46: some even one or two hours before they go to vote.

00:03:51: but you also need to understand that you know voters switch easily to a different party but they always remain in the same block.

00:04:00: so if you are a left-wing voter it's not so likely that you switch to the right block or the other way around.

00:04:08: and third I talk now about two blocks, the left and right, but since some time political scientists also mentioned that there is a third block, and this is not unique in the Netherlands.

00:04:22: I think in a lot of countries this is happening, but there is now also a radical right block in our country.

00:04:29: But the radical right block in our country is not only one political party.

00:04:34: Again, there's also challengers of the party of Herdwilders.

00:04:40: the PVV, there is like two challengers there, but also other political parties, you see that they shift towards the radical rights.

00:04:53: So the Farber Party, maybe you can say that they are also linked to that radical rights block, but even the Ulthra Orthodox Christian Party, for example, and even the Liberal Conservatives, the VVD, They supported many anti-liberal initiatives lately.

00:05:13: So, now I'm ready to answer your question.

00:05:18: What have we seen?

00:05:20: Okay, my three takeaways are one, you already mentioned, the Social Liberals, day one.

00:05:28: But today, when we are recording, it's not sure yet.

00:05:32: It's Friday now, and the people are still counting votes in Venrai.

00:05:40: And Venrai is a really important municipality for hirthbuilders.

00:05:45: And on Monday, the last votes from voters who are living abroad will be Kalmut.

00:05:53: So it looks like T- Sixty-Six won, but if they won, it was a close call.

00:05:59: So that's one.

00:06:02: Because there's only two thousand two thousand votes difference the last info we got right between the d-sixty-six and builders party.

00:06:10: Yeah, right now.

00:06:11: It's a difference of a fifteen thousand.

00:06:14: So, okay

00:06:15: Yeah, it's a bit

00:06:16: more of the sixty six

00:06:18: Exactly exactly, but this can change but indeed it's it's not substantial, right?

00:06:25: Yeah, so my second takeaway is that the the left all together we lost again And still we are historically small.

00:06:34: And the right and radical right, they are super big when you add them.

00:06:41: And my third takeaway is that I think Dutch voters were super much done with the government that didn't deliver.

00:06:51: And it was only causing chaos.

00:06:53: And there were many fights among each other.

00:06:56: So what you see is that there were many disappointed voters from the VVD, so the Liberals or the Conservatives, and they voted now for the D- Sixty-Six and the Christian Democratic Party.

00:07:12: The last election, two years ago, there was the big new social contract political party.

00:07:19: It was led by Pieter Omtzigt.

00:07:22: They're gone now.

00:07:25: those disappointed voters voted for D-Sixie-Six and also the Social Democratic Party.

00:07:31: And then there's also many PVV voters that were disappointed and many of them stayed home.

00:07:39: or they voted for the Liberal Conservatives or Forum for Democracy.

00:07:44: is one of those radical right parties or a new one.

00:07:49: It's called Ja in the Twinter, yes, twenty-one.

00:07:53: and they call themselves we are the reasonable PPP

00:07:59: which are and their members of ECR and the European Parliament if I'm not mistaken.

00:08:04: Yeah

00:08:04: you're right yeah.

00:08:06: so what you see is that there is a lot of disappointment now in politics.

00:08:13: Yeah that brings me to my my next point.

00:08:17: We've seen a lot of turbulence and polarisation in the last two years and also with the Vilders party in government always at the brink or often at the brink of collapse.

00:08:29: So we would have expected maybe some more votes for traditional center-left parties.

00:08:37: But that didn't really happen.

00:08:39: So how do you see this... this result or why it didn't, the coalition or between Hürnlinks and Pepe Dea, they didn't manage to capitalize this fatigue on populism.

00:08:55: Yeah, this is a highly relevant question, I think.

00:08:58: And of course, we were also expecting more, to be honest.

00:09:02: This was disappointing for us.

00:09:07: Yeah, first of all, I think Franz Dimmermann's He was the leader and I think he was in shape this time.

00:09:14: He performed pretty well in all the debates and super important he didn't make any mistake.

00:09:22: And he had to deal with a lot of toxic personal attacks from opponents but also from media and also threats from extremists on the streets.

00:09:35: I think he did what he could, and yeah, he deserves some compliments for that.

00:09:43: But at the same time, I think we need to be also really reflective on ourselves, right?

00:09:49: And my two cents on this is that I think the problem is not that we don't have clever ideas how to solve problems.

00:09:59: We have We're very good and strong in policy proposals.

00:10:04: And we even can prove that we can finance it on a responsible way.

00:10:09: But this is very rational.

00:10:12: And I think politics is about emotions.

00:10:15: It's about values.

00:10:16: It's about identity.

00:10:17: It's about winning the hearts of people.

00:10:21: And I think we lost it here.

00:10:23: The campaign was not triggering emotions and the leadership profile.

00:10:30: was based on experience and on taking administrative responsibility.

00:10:35: But again, that is factual, but it's not triggering emotions.

00:10:40: And if I compare this campaign with D-Sixty-Six that won, he won with energy, with positive vibes.

00:10:52: So yeah, I think he could trigger optimism and different emotions.

00:10:59: So this is one, but I think that, yeah, if you allow me.

00:11:03: Yeah, there is, I think also a second reason why we didn't, yeah, didn't succeed.

00:11:11: But then you also need to understand how Dutch voters, what they stand for, because there is a left wing majority still in the Netherlands when it comes to social economic issues.

00:11:25: when I think of housing, of care, of living, redistribution.

00:11:30: But at the same time, there is a right majority when it comes to social cultural issues, like national identity and migration.

00:11:40: And in the Netherlands, but I think also in other countries, it's all about issue ownership.

00:11:47: So voters, they don't make a decision based on the full program, full of policy proposals, right?

00:11:54: The question is who is dominating the debate?

00:11:57: And what is the discourse that dominates?

00:12:00: And can you be offensive, but also can you define the problem instead of can you offer the best solutions how to solve the problem?

00:12:12: And I think we didn't do a good job in setting the agenda.

00:12:16: And this is not only due to us.

00:12:20: I think this is the... the interaction between all the political parties and also media.

00:12:26: We are all fostering a migration politics, right?

00:12:31: So even our political party is contributing because we are reacting constantly on migration on the agenda of Geert Wilders.

00:12:43: And what also doesn't help is that within our party, yeah, there is a bit of a division how to deal with this.

00:12:51: Some want to also articulate concerns that people are having and they want to move a bit to the center and give oxygen, I think, to this discourse, while others say, no, we need to tell our own story about the topics that we think it's a problem and also many people think that that is a problem.

00:13:14: So I think the challenge also for us is how can we set the agenda?

00:13:18: And that is a long-term project, but it is possible because there is still a left-wing majority in the Netherlands on topics like housing and care, but we need to activate them and we need to mobilize them on these kind of topics.

00:13:35: Zooming in on this long-term project, two years ago, Jeroen Lings and Pevedea decided to join forces.

00:13:44: and they are on the way of a merger with the hope of building a strong progressive block and beyond the election as well.

00:13:56: So after this election, some are wondering whether this merging project is going.

00:14:02: So how do you see the diffusion of the two parties?

00:14:05: Is it still on track?

00:14:08: Will it face some strain or some rethinking on how to do it?

00:14:14: Yeah, well, we are still on track.

00:14:18: I think the merger process, it was not ready yet.

00:14:24: There was an early fall of government, so these elections were a little bit too soon for us, to be honest, because next year in June, we will have a new party with a new name, with new energy, but also with a clear narrative based on a coherent ideological foundation.

00:14:44: So, yeah, we were not ready yet to define ourselves very clear.

00:14:51: And two, yeah, you mentioned, I mentioned before, this is a long-term project, a merger.

00:14:58: It takes time, right?

00:15:00: And you cannot measure success or failure in one or two years or depending on one or two elections.

00:15:08: We have in the Netherlands the tradition also to merge parties.

00:15:14: My party, the Greens, we are a merged party.

00:15:18: The Social Democratic Party used to be four parties or three.

00:15:22: But also the Social Democratic Party and the Christian Union are also parties that were originally multiple parties.

00:15:31: So it takes time.

00:15:34: And my third point of view here is that I think you also need to think what would have happened if we were still operating in different political parties in this highly fragmented landscape with so many volatile voters.

00:15:54: If I take a look at our challengers, like the Socialist Party or the Party for the Animals or a vault, the International Party, they crumbled or are irrelevant.

00:16:07: So I think if we didn't join forces, it would have been more likely that we were irrelevant, seeing what the D- Sixty-Six also was doing now.

00:16:21: Right.

00:16:22: And so we should see maybe in the next election.

00:16:27: The next election is the local, right?

00:16:29: Next year you have local elections.

00:16:31: Yeah, in March.

00:16:32: So the merger was here towards that election and then the snap election took place.

00:16:38: Yeah.

00:16:38: Yeah, yeah, right after because first in March we have the local elections and there is like, I think, ninety percent of the local departments, they will be already merged by that time, but for the five to ten percent who wants to be separated from each other, we don't want to force them, right?

00:16:59: So first the idea is there's local elections and after the local elections it's time to to finalize the merger between the two parties in June.

00:17:12: So in June there is a new party coming up.

00:17:14: June,

00:17:15: June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June,

00:17:17: June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June,

00:17:19: June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June,

00:17:31: June,

00:17:32: June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June.

00:17:33: He has already hinted that he would favor a government that includes current links and PVDA.

00:17:42: So where do you see a common ground between D-Six-Six and current links PVDA?

00:17:51: or where do you see some tensions, for instance, on economic or climate policy?

00:17:56: Rob Jepten has been quite vocal on climate, for instance, so I imagine that could be connecting points, but I guess it means on the details, right?

00:18:06: Yeah, you're right, because we do see them as an ally.

00:18:12: Indeed, when it comes to green issues, Yeah, there is not a lot of difference between them and us.

00:18:19: I think in our policy proposals there is more focus also on climate justice and for them more about innovation and no speedy transition.

00:18:32: But we are strong allies on climate.

00:18:36: And yet indeed he was a climate minister and he was the most effective and successful climate minister the Netherlands ever had.

00:18:45: What is also interesting is that his political party is, we always used to be issue owner on education and the previous government was preparing massive budget cuts on education and universities, but also on on the public broadcast for example.

00:19:09: So I think together with them we can protect education and we can also strengthen the democratic constitutional state.

00:19:18: And that is highly relevant also being prepared for the next election where maybe the radical right can win again, right?

00:19:28: So I think we need to strengthen the democratic constitutional state.

00:19:34: But you're right, there's also divisions of course.

00:19:37: I think one of the key issues is can we protect the welfare state and social security and also collective public services?

00:19:49: Because we also need to increase the budget on defense since the NATO norm is three percent and all of the parties, including our political party, we want to deliver on this.

00:20:03: But we say not with budget cuts on the welfare state.

00:20:08: And I think this is difficult because the other parties, they won't tax the rich.

00:20:14: I think there are also less or we are a bit less strict on the national budget to visit.

00:20:21: I mean, it needs to be OK.

00:20:24: But I think sometimes it can be more wise to be a bit less strict on that.

00:20:31: So yeah, I think this is a challenge.

00:20:33: And another challenge will be migration, because D- Sixty-Six, they shifted to the right on this topic as well.

00:20:41: And if I see a government with D- Sixty-Six and Christian Democratic Party and the Liberals or conservatives, then we will be very lonely on migration issues.

00:20:54: Yeah.

00:20:56: So now it's time for coalition talks.

00:21:00: That's where the real drama begins.

00:21:03: So what configurations are actually on the table?

00:21:08: I hear in Belgium, for instance, they assign a formateur.

00:21:11: I don't know if it's the same in the Netherlands.

00:21:14: If it's up to Rovjeten to start, I guess, as the first party.

00:21:20: So where would you see the possible coalitions or at least to start with like the first options?

00:21:30: Yeah, Rob Jette, when he has the initiative, we know today or after the weekend, he already was explicit about it.

00:21:42: He says, my first favorite coalition would be the Christian Democratic Party, the Conservatives or the Liberals.

00:21:51: I don't know how you called it the day.

00:21:56: And then the question is, is it our party, the Greens and Alliance of the Social Democrats?

00:22:05: Or, yeah, twenty-one.

00:22:07: So this was the reasonable VVV.

00:22:12: And Robietta already told everyone my preference is first.

00:22:17: I start with the Greens and Social Democratic Party.

00:22:22: But it's already a challenge.

00:22:25: because the conservatives, their campaign was fully focused on telling the whole world, we must keep the Greens and the Social Democratic Party out of government.

00:22:38: So they need to make a U-turn to make this happen.

00:22:44: And I think what they want is the government together with, yeah, twenty one.

00:22:52: So, yeah, it's going to be interesting what's going to happen.

00:22:55: But those are the two realistic options, I would say.

00:23:00: I think we all see the Netherlands as a land of compromise.

00:23:03: So, as you said, we'll see in the coming weeks whether some parties change.

00:23:11: There stands some current links with India and arrive to India.

00:23:15: But if you look at now coming back to Brussels and also European capitals that are watching.

00:23:24: a new Dutch government taking shape, what can we expect on EU policy by a new Dutch government?

00:23:34: A non-populous one, presumably, with the health builders, but also with many burning issues, be it defence, but also the next multi-annual financial framework.

00:23:48: Climate crisis, so what should what?

00:23:52: what can we expect from the from the next government?

00:23:54: let presumably by the sixty six

00:23:57: Yeah, well, I'm hopeful about that Because I was You know I was I was not happy with the situation and the Netherlands.

00:24:11: we always used to be you know and a reasonable political ally in Europe.

00:24:21: And we always try to be a frontrunner in some issues.

00:24:25: We try to be relevant.

00:24:26: We try to be trustworthy and stable and steady.

00:24:31: So what I'm hoping for is that we can take position again in Europe and also in international politics.

00:24:39: Because previous governments, they were only focused on themselves and very much focus on the Netherlands and there was no interest in the world around.

00:24:51: And if there was interest in the world around us, it was always negative, if I would say.

00:24:58: So I think when it comes to international security and peace, you know, the Netherlands can be a trustworthy partner again, you know, open for European collaboration, but I hope that is why it's so important that the Greens and the Social Democratic Party will join, that there is also a Europe based on solidarity between the different countries, the member states.

00:25:24: So yeah, I hope that we invest again in strong partnerships with an open mind toward the world and with a different, not to focus on local and national issues.

00:25:40: that is what i hope and this is also why i think it's so.

00:25:44: yeah it's such a pity that france dimmermans didn't make it because still i think he is the best prime minister the netherlands could wish for but also european union.

00:25:55: um so yeah that that is a. that is a big loss these elections that this didn't happen.

00:26:03: it's good nevertheless to end on a on a hopeful note in this turbulent time.

00:26:08: so we'll Look closely at what comes next for the Netherlands.

00:26:13: But I thank you very much, Nortje, for your time.

00:26:16: This has been a very interesting and an enlightening conversation.

00:26:20: And yeah, all the best for the coming weeks and months for you and the Netherlands.

00:26:26: Thank you so much.

00:26:29: You've been listening to the Berl-Jure podcast on the results of the Dutch elections with Nortje Teysen, the director of the Wetenshaapelink Bero Grunlings.

00:26:39: You can find more analysis and updates on Dutch and European politics in the show notes and on our website eu.bel.org.

00:26:47: If you enjoyed this episode, don't forget to subscribe, leave a review and share it with your friends

00:26:52: and colleagues.

00:26:53: Until next time, goodbye!